Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 4:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Tomorrow looks like a normal day here: all 2 nonstops are 7–8% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day


DL 5063 Delta flown by Endeavor Flight history →	MSP 12:42	RIC 16:12	7%	3%	0.7%	69%
DL 5530 Delta flown by Endeavor Flight history →	MSP 20:10	RIC 23:43	8%	5%	0.7%	70%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Richmond on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Richmond is 1 h ahead of Minneapolis). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	MSP 00:01 → ATL 03:41DL 1032	3h 55m Atlanta	ATL 07:36 → RIC 09:12DL 1462	8h 11m	100%	96%
Delta Details →	MSP 05:20 → ATL 08:54DL 1062	3h 34m Atlanta	ATL 12:28 → RIC 14:07DL 3152	7h 47m	100%	93%
Delta Details →	MSP 08:26 → ATL 11:54DL 1052	2h 52m Atlanta	ATL 14:46 → RIC 16:23DL 1214	6h 57m	100%	93%
Delta Details →	MSP 09:00 → DTW 11:42DL 1433	2h 48m Detroit	DTW 14:30 → RIC 16:13DL 3073	6h 13m	99%	92%
Delta Details →	MSP 06:55 → JFK 10:39DL 2969	3h 50m New York	JFK 14:29 → RIC 15:56DL 5301 · flown by Endeavor	8h 01m	100%	91%
Delta Details →	MSP 10:32 → ATL 14:04DL 1046	3h 08m Atlanta	ATL 17:12 → RIC 18:53DL 1348	7h 21m	99%	91%
Delta Details →	MSP 12:45 → ATL 16:22DL 1048	3h 50m Atlanta	ATL 20:12 → RIC 21:54DL 1263	8h 09m	99%	89%
Delta Details →	MSP 10:05 → BOS 13:51DL 2655	2h 19m Boston	BOS 16:10 → RIC 18:17DL 5665 · flown by Republic	7h 12m	99%	88%
Tight connection: often missed
American Details →	MSP 16:08 → PHL 19:53AA 3294	46m Philadelphia	PHL 20:39 → RIC 21:49AA 5805 · flown by Piedmont	4h 41m	73%	64%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON