Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 9:00 AM ET · connections flying that day

Tomorrow looks like a normal day here: all 2 nonstops are 12–15% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day


DL 2400 Delta Flight history →	MSP 09:05	RSW 13:27	12%	3%	1.3%	86%
DL 2219 Delta	MSP 13:23	RSW 17:53	15%	4%	1.8%	no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Fort Myers on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Fort Myers is 1 h ahead of Minneapolis). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	MSP 06:04 → DTW 08:47DL 1461	1h 37m Detroit	DTW 10:24 → RSW 13:23DL 1055	6h 19m	99%	89%
United Details →	MSP 06:00 → ORD 07:44UA 307	1h 42m Chicago	ORD 09:26 → RSW 13:24UA 1036	6h 24m	99%	88%
United Details →	MSP 05:45 → DEN 06:53UA 2041	2h 42m Denver	DEN 09:35 → RSW 15:22UA 2601	8h 37m	99%	87%
Delta Details →	MSP 09:00 → DTW 11:42DL 1433	2h 46m Detroit	DTW 14:28 → RSW 17:22DL 1225	7h 22m	99%	86%
Delta Details →	MSP 05:20 → ATL 08:54DL 1062	3h 59m Atlanta	ATL 12:53 → RSW 14:35DL 1196	8h 15m	100%	84%
American Details →	MSP 06:19 → CLT 10:00AA 894	2h 08m Charlotte	CLT 12:08 → RSW 14:15AA 2018	6h 56m	99%	83%
Delta Details →	MSP 08:26 → ATL 11:54DL 1052	3h 05m Atlanta	ATL 14:59 → RSW 16:44DL 1379	7h 18m	100%	82%
Delta Details →	MSP 17:18 → ATL 21:05DL 1036	1h 35m Atlanta	ATL 22:40 → RSW 00:23 +1DL 1217	6h 05m	98%	81%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON