Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 2:00 AM ET · 3 nonstops

Tomorrow looks like a normal day here: all 3 nonstops are 6–10% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Safest bet that day DL 2121 MSP 08:51 → SAN 10:38 · 6% chance 15+ min late · usually 82% on time Riskiest DL 2145 MSP 18:50 → SAN 20:35 · 10% chance 15+ min late · usually 73% on time

Against a calm day 8% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 8% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Tue, Oct 6

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


DL 2121 Delta Flight history →	MSP 08:51	SAN 10:38	6%	1%	0.6%	82%
DL 2125 Delta Flight history →	MSP 11:38	SAN 13:24	8%	2%	0.6%	81%
DL 2145 Delta Flight history →	MSP 18:50	SAN 20:35	10%	2%	0.6%	73%

Alternatives with one stop that day

All connections →


United Details →	MSP 05:45 → DEN 06:53UA 2041	50m Denver	DEN 07:43 → SAN 09:05UA 2309	5h 20m	94%	84%
United Details →	MSP 09:05 → DEN 10:21UA 1891	54m Denver	DEN 11:15 → SAN 12:41UA 1940	5h 36m	92%	77%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON