Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 7:00 AM ET · 5 nonstops

Tomorrow: one nonstop, DL 4007 at 13:32, with a 8% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Safest bet that day DL 4007 MSP 13:32 → SDF 16:25 · 8% chance 15+ min late · usually 71% on time

Against a calm day 8% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 8% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Tue, Oct 6

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort. Dimmed: airlines we don’t forecast yet, shown with their 12-month record if they usually fly that weekday.


DL 4007 Delta flown by SkyWest Flight history →	MSP 13:32	SDF 16:25	8%	3%	0.5%	71%
DL 4988 Delta flown by Endeavor no forecast: 12-month record	MSP 09:00	SDF 12:00	32%	12%	2.4%	68%
DL 5017 Delta flown by Endeavor no forecast: 12-month record	MSP 14:20	SDF 17:15	38%	20%	0.0%	62%
DL 5070 Delta flown by Endeavor no forecast: 12-month record	MSP 20:49	SDF 23:51	47%	17%	1.8%	53%
DL 4923 Delta flown by Endeavor no forecast: 12-month record	MSP 16:13	SDF 19:11	49%	26%	2.1%	51%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON