Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 8:00 PM ET · 8 nonstops

Tue, Oct 6 looks like a normal day here: all 8 nonstops are 6–12% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Safest bet that day DL 889 MSP 11:10 → SEA 13:00 · 6% chance 15+ min late · usually 87% on time Riskiest AS 510 MSP 16:57 → SEA 18:52 · 12% chance 15+ min late · usually 81% on time

Against a calm day 9% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 8% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Tue, Oct 6

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


DL 889 Delta Flight history →	MSP 11:10	SEA 13:00	6%	2%	0.6%	87%
DL 505 Delta Flight history →	MSP 22:08	SEA 23:58	7%	2%	0.6%	83%
DL 868 Delta Flight history →	MSP 09:05	SEA 10:59	8%	2%	0.6%	88%
DL 877 Delta Flight history →	MSP 15:15	SEA 17:00	8%	3%	0.6%	75%
AS 387 Alaska Flight history →	MSP 06:03	SEA 07:58	8%	2%	0.7%	85%
AS 555 Alaska Flight history →	MSP 14:56	SEA 16:50	10%	2%	0.6%	78%
DL 881 Delta Flight history →	MSP 18:55	SEA 20:48	10%	2%	0.6%	75%
AS 510 Alaska Flight history →	MSP 16:57	SEA 18:52	12%	3%	0.6%	81%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON