Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 6:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Tue, Oct 6: Delta via Salt Lake City, leaving 12:29, is the safest bet: 84% chance of reaching San Jose on time.

Nonstops that day


DL 2383 Delta Flight history →	MSP 10:05	SJC 12:01	9%	2%	0.6%	90%
DL 2087 Delta Flight history →	MSP 18:30	SJC 20:35	11%	3%	0.7%	68%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach San Jose on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (San Jose is 2 h behind Minneapolis). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	MSP 07:06 → LAX 09:00DL 2110	3h 57m Los Angeles	LAX 12:57 → SJC 14:12DL 3842 · flown by SkyWest	9h 06m	100%	92%
Delta Details →	MSP 08:10 → SLC 09:59DL 2628	1h 41m Salt Lake City	SLC 11:40 → SJC 12:35DL 1254	6h 25m	99%	91%
Delta Details →	MSP 15:15 → SEA 17:00DL 877	3h 30m Seattle	SEA 20:30 → SJC 22:48DL 3956 · flown by SkyWest	9h 33m	100%	90%
United Details →	MSP 06:00 → ORD 07:44UA 307	1h 32m Chicago	ORD 09:16 → SJC 11:46UA 307	7h 46m	99%	90%
Delta Details →	MSP 09:05 → SEA 10:59DL 868	3h 46m Seattle	SEA 14:45 → SJC 17:05DL 3897 · flown by SkyWest	10h 00m	99%	89%
Delta Details →	MSP 11:30 → LAX 13:23DL 2119	2h 38m Los Angeles	LAX 16:01 → SJC 17:25DL 1359	7h 55m	99%	89%
American Details →	MSP 07:41 → PHX 09:00AA 3143	2h 27m Phoenix	PHX 11:27 → SJC 13:26AA 3940 · flown by Envoy	7h 45m	98%	88%
American Details →	MSP 05:59 → DFW 08:42AA 1395	3h 31m Dallas-Fort Worth	DFW 12:13 → SJC 13:57AA 2834	9h 58m	99%	88%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON