Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 5:00 AM ET · connections flying that day

Tomorrow looks like a normal day here: all 2 nonstops are 6–9% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day


DL 1701 Delta Flight history →	MSP 10:24	SMF 12:09	6%	2%	0.6%	94%
DL 574 Delta Flight history →	MSP 18:45	SMF 20:35	9%	2%	0.6%	79%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Sacramento on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Sacramento is 2 h behind Minneapolis). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	MSP 18:13 → SLC 20:07DL 2607	2h 57m Salt Lake City	SLC 23:04 → SMF 23:44DL 1582	7h 31m	100%	93%
United Details →	MSP 06:00 → ORD 07:44UA 307	1h 20m Chicago	ORD 09:04 → SMF 11:51UA 2145	7h 51m	99%	92%
Delta Details →	MSP 13:05 → LAX 14:48DL 2974	3h 56m Los Angeles	LAX 18:44 → SMF 20:21DL 3712 · flown by SkyWest	9h 16m	100%	92%
United Details →	MSP 05:45 → DEN 06:53UA 2041	1h 07m Denver	DEN 08:00 → SMF 09:35UA 2149	5h 50m	97%	91%
Delta Details →	MSP 15:15 → SEA 17:00DL 877	3h 25m Seattle	SEA 20:25 → SMF 22:31DL 4131 · flown by SkyWest	9h 16m	100%	91%
Delta Details →	MSP 08:10 → SLC 09:59DL 2628	1h 36m Salt Lake City	SLC 11:35 → SMF 12:16DL 1423	6h 06m	99%	91%
United Details →	MSP 09:05 → DEN 10:21UA 1891	3h 14m Denver	DEN 13:35 → SMF 15:10UA 662	8h 05m	100%	89%
Delta Details →	MSP 09:05 → SEA 10:59DL 868	3h 41m Seattle	SEA 14:40 → SMF 16:39DL 4153 · flown by SkyWest	9h 34m	99%	88%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON