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Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 5:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Tue, Oct 6: Delta via Salt Lake City, leaving 18:13, is the safest bet: 83% chance of reaching Santa Ana on time.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →
DL 2107 Delta Flight history → MSP 18:28 SNA 20:20 16% 3% 0.6% 68%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Santa Ana on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Santa Ana is 2 h behind Minneapolis). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
AmericanDetails → MSP 05:59 → DFW 08:42AA 1395 3h 43m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 12:25 → SNA 13:59AA 2465 10h 00m 99% 89%
UnitedDetails → MSP 09:05 → DEN 10:21UA 1891 3h 04m Denver DEN 13:25 → SNA 14:57UA 1707 7h 52m 100% 88%
DeltaDetails → MSP 15:15 → SEA 17:00DL 877 2h 56m Seattle SEA 19:56 → SNA 22:45DL 3695 · flown by SkyWest 9h 30m 100% 87%
AlaskaDetails → MSP 14:56 → SEA 16:50AS 555 2h 20m Seattle SEA 19:10 → SNA 22:01AS 631 9h 05m 99% 87%
UnitedDetails → MSP 07:35 → IAH 10:30UA 2460 1h 58m Houston IAH 12:28 → SNA 14:15UA 1533 8h 40m 98% 86%
UnitedDetails → MSP 06:00 → ORD 07:44UA 307 56m Chicago ORD 08:40 → SNA 11:21UA 1304 7h 21m 96% 86%
UnitedDetails → MSP 13:36 → DEN 14:48UA 1305 3h 04m Denver DEN 17:52 → SNA 19:33UA 1291 7h 57m 100% 86%
AmericanDetails → MSP 10:27 → DFW 12:54AA 2220 3h 30m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 16:24 → SNA 17:51AA 3223 9h 24m 99% 86%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON