Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 7:00 AM ET · connections flying that day

Tomorrow looks like a normal day here: all 2 nonstops are 8–11% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day


DL 2264 Delta Flight history →	MSP 09:54	TPA 14:16	8%	2%	0.9%	82%
DL 2385 Delta Flight history →	MSP 20:15	TPA 00:15	11%	3%	1.2%	75%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Tampa on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Tampa is 1 h ahead of Minneapolis). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	MSP 00:01 → ATL 03:41DL 1032	3h 44m Atlanta	ATL 07:25 → TPA 08:54DL 2605	7h 53m	100%	94%
Delta Details →	MSP 08:26 → ATL 11:54DL 1052	2h 15m Atlanta	ATL 14:09 → TPA 15:51DL 1720	6h 25m	100%	89%
Delta Details →	MSP 06:04 → DTW 08:47DL 1461	1h 28m Detroit	DTW 10:15 → TPA 12:50DL 2587	5h 46m	99%	88%
United Details →	MSP 06:00 → ORD 07:44UA 307	3h 35m Chicago	ORD 11:19 → TPA 15:12UA 1834	8h 12m	100%	87%
Delta Details →	MSP 14:30 → IAD 18:04DL 3783 · flown by SkyWest	2h 43m Dulles	IAD 20:47 → TPA 23:12DL 2234	7h 42m	99%	87%
Delta Details →	MSP 05:20 → ATL 08:54DL 1062	3h 52m Atlanta	ATL 12:46 → TPA 14:13DL 1525	7h 53m	100%	86%
Delta Details →	MSP 12:54 → JFK 17:00DL 2661	2h 55m New York	JFK 19:55 → TPA 23:20DL 1636	9h 26m	98%	86%
United Details →	MSP 05:45 → DEN 06:53UA 2041	2h 47m Denver	DEN 09:40 → TPA 15:14UA 1010	8h 29m	99%	86%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON