Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 2:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Tomorrow: one nonstop, DL 3995 at 10:24, with a 11% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day


DL 3995 Delta flown by SkyWest Flight history →	MSP 10:24	TVC 12:54	11%	3%	0.6%	81%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Traverse City on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Traverse City is 1 h ahead of Minneapolis). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	MSP 06:04 → DTW 08:47DL 1461	1h 35m Detroit	DTW 10:22 → TVC 11:33DL 3976 · flown by SkyWest	4h 29m	99%	84%
Delta Details →	MSP 16:15 → DTW 18:59DL 1476	4h 00m Detroit	DTW 22:59 → TVC 00:08 +1DL 2424	6h 53m	100%	83%
United Details →	MSP 05:45 → DEN 06:53UA 2041	2h 45m Denver	DEN 09:38 → TVC 14:19UA 2420	7h 34m	99%	82%
American Details →	MSP 06:19 → CLT 10:00AA 894	49m Charlotte	CLT 10:49 → TVC 13:06AA 5575 · flown by PSA	5h 47m	92%	77%
United Details →	MSP 15:16 → ORD 16:58UA 1531	2h 15m Chicago	ORD 19:13 → TVC 21:23UA 677	5h 07m	96%	65%
United Details →	MSP 18:59 → ORD 20:32UA 1237	1h 02m Chicago	ORD 21:34 → TVC 23:46UA 2071	3h 47m	79%	57%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON