tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 12:00 AM ET · connections flying that day

Tomorrow looks like a normal day here: all 2 nonstops are 9–11% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 2 nonstops →
OO 3761 SkyWest MSP 09:07 XNA 11:06 9% 3% 0.6% no record
OO 3751 SkyWest MSP 14:26 XNA 16:23 11% 4% 0.6% no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Fayetteville/Springdale/ on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
DeltaDetails → MSP 08:10 → SLC 09:59DL 2628 3h 25m Salt Lake City SLC 13:24 → XNA 17:03DL 3620 · flown by SkyWest 8h 53m 100% 91%
DeltaDetails → MSP 17:18 → ATL 21:05DL 1036 1h 47m Atlanta ATL 22:52 → XNA 00:05 +1DL 3747 · flown by SkyWest 6h 47m 98% 89%
AmericanDetails → MSP 10:27 → DFW 12:54AA 2220 3h 44m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 16:38 → XNA 18:00AA 3693 · flown by Envoy 7h 33m 99% 88%
UnitedDetails → MSP 05:45 → DEN 06:53UA 2041 2h 57m Denver DEN 09:50 → XNA 12:47UA 5267 · flown by SkyWest 7h 02m 99% 87%
UnitedDetails → MSP 09:05 → DEN 10:21UA 1891 3h 09m Denver DEN 13:30 → XNA 16:25UA 5641 · flown by SkyWest 7h 20m 100% 87%
DeltaDetails → MSP 10:32 → ATL 14:04DL 1046 3h 10m Atlanta ATL 17:14 → XNA 18:05DL 2771 7h 33m 99% 86%
DeltaDetails → MSP 12:45 → ATL 16:22DL 1048 3h 09m Atlanta ATL 19:31 → XNA 20:26DL 1710 7h 41m 99% 85%
AmericanDetails → MSP 05:59 → DFW 08:42AA 1395 1h 16m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 09:58 → XNA 11:21AA 2025 5h 22m 98% 82%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON