Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 8:00 PM ET · 9 nonstops

Tue, Oct 6: DL 1547 at 05:19 is the safest bet, 5% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 13–31%.

Safest bet that day DL 1547 MSY 05:19 → ATL 07:54 · 5% chance 15+ min late · usually 92% on time Riskiest F9 2052 MSY 17:06 → ATL 19:58 · 31% chance 15+ min late · usually 58% on time

Against a calm day 11% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 9% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Tue, Oct 6

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


DL 1547 Delta Flight history →	MSY 05:19	ATL 07:54	5%	3%	0.7%	92%
DL 1534 Delta Flight history →	MSY 06:20	ATL 08:57	7%	2%	0.7%	92%
DL 3128 Delta Flight history →	MSY 09:13	ATL 11:43	7%	3%	0.6%	93%
DL 2522 Delta Flight history →	MSY 07:28	ATL 10:00	8%	3%	0.6%	90%
DL 1424 Delta Flight history →	MSY 10:34	ATL 13:05	8%	2%	0.7%	92%
DL 2542 Delta Flight history →	MSY 12:42	ATL 15:16	10%	2%	0.7%	86%
DL 3157 Delta Flight history →	MSY 15:22	ATL 18:01	12%	3%	0.7%	76%
DL 3146 Delta Flight history →	MSY 16:59	ATL 19:32	13%	3%	0.6%	84%
F9 2052 Frontier Flight history →	MSY 17:06	ATL 19:58	31%	10%	1.0%	58%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON