Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 8:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Tue, Oct 6: Delta via Atlanta, leaving 10:34, is the safest bet: 79% chance of reaching Boston on time.

Nonstops that day


DL 1453 Delta	MSY 16:24	BOS 21:08	18%	5%	0.6%	no record
B6 400 JetBlue Flight history →	MSY 17:06	BOS 21:34	19%	5%	0.7%	68%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Boston on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Boston is 1 h ahead of New Orleans). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	MSY 05:19 → ATL 07:54DL 1547	2h 11m Atlanta	ATL 10:05 → BOS 12:45DL 855	6h 26m	99%	92%
Delta Details →	MSY 06:20 → ATL 08:57DL 1534	3h 20m Atlanta	ATL 12:17 → BOS 14:51DL 1293	7h 31m	100%	91%
Delta Details →	MSY 07:28 → ATL 10:00DL 2522	3h 58m Atlanta	ATL 13:58 → BOS 16:44DL 726	8h 16m	99%	89%
Delta Details →	MSY 10:20 → JFK 14:31DL 1322	2h 59m New York	JFK 17:30 → BOS 19:16DL 5798 · flown by Republic	7h 56m	99%	89%
Delta Details →	MSY 15:22 → ATL 18:01DL 3157	2h 49m Atlanta	ATL 20:50 → BOS 23:36DL 300	7h 14m	98%	88%
Delta Details →	MSY 11:19 → DTW 14:48DL 2790	3h 10m Detroit	DTW 17:58 → BOS 20:00DL 1707	7h 41m	99%	87%
Delta Details →	MSY 10:34 → ATL 13:05DL 1424	3h 40m Atlanta	ATL 16:45 → BOS 19:30DL 518	7h 56m	99%	87%
Delta Details →	MSY 09:13 → ATL 11:43DL 3128	3h 32m Atlanta	ATL 15:15 → BOS 18:00DL 2595	7h 47m	99%	85%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON