tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 6:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Tue, Oct 6 looks like a normal day here: all 2 nonstops are 2–9% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 2 nonstops →
WN 3325 Southwest MSY 06:09 BWI 09:48 2% 1% 0.7% no record
WN 2921 Southwest MSY 15:52 BWI 19:48 9% 2% 0.6% no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Baltimore on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Baltimore is 1 h ahead of New Orleans). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
DeltaDetails → MSY 05:19 → ATL 07:54DL 1547 3h 16m Atlanta ATL 11:10 → BWI 13:01DL 2711 6h 42m 100% 92%
SouthwestDetails → MSY 10:12 → BNA 11:52WN 1146 2h 14m Nashville BNA 14:06 → BWI 16:58WN 462 5h 46m 99% 91%
UnitedDetails → MSY 07:00 → IAH 08:19UA 2124 3h 57m Houston IAH 12:16 → BWI 16:30UA 1720 8h 30m 99% 91%
DeltaDetails → MSY 09:13 → ATL 11:43DL 3128 2h 19m Atlanta ATL 14:02 → BWI 15:53DL 2799 5h 40m 98% 90%
DeltaDetails → MSY 10:34 → ATL 13:05DL 1424 3h 40m Atlanta ATL 16:45 → BWI 18:41DL 2928 7h 07m 99% 87%
UnitedDetails → MSY 12:07 → IAH 13:26UA 2253 3h 27m Houston IAH 16:53 → BWI 21:10UA 592 8h 03m 100% 86%
AmericanDetails → MSY 05:57 → MIA 09:11AA 867 1h 16m Miami MIA 10:27 → BWI 13:17AA 1010 6h 20m 96% 84%
AmericanDetails → MSY 08:12 → CLT 11:18AA 424 1h 07m Charlotte CLT 12:25 → BWI 14:04AA 2733 4h 52m 93% 83%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON