Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 3:00 PM ET · 6 nonstops

Tomorrow: AA 424 at 06:14 is the safest bet, 6% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 9–19%.

Safest bet that day AA 424 MSY 06:14 → CLT 09:14 · 6% chance 15+ min late · usually 91% on time Riskiest AA 2615 MSY 17:45 → CLT 20:49 · 19% chance 15+ min late · usually 75% on time

Against a calm day 13% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 11% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Tue, Oct 6

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


AA 424 American Flight history →	MSY 06:14	CLT 09:14	6%	2%	0.6%	91%
AA 1585 American	MSY 07:28	CLT 10:28	9%	3%	0.6%	no record
AA 2287 American Flight history →	MSY 10:07	CLT 13:07	9%	2%	0.7%	91%
AA 2997 American	MSY 13:15	CLT 16:17	16%	3%	0.7%	no record
AA 1769 American	MSY 14:00	CLT 17:02	17%	3%	0.7%	no record
AA 2615 American Flight history →	MSY 17:45	CLT 20:49	19%	4%	0.7%	75%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON