Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · 5 nonstops

Tue, Oct 6: WN 4273 at 06:39 is the safest bet, 2% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 5–15%.

Safest bet that day WN 4273 MSY 06:39 → DAL 08:18 · 2% chance 15+ min late Riskiest WN 4976 MSY 16:37 → DAL 18:11 · 15% chance 15+ min late

Against a calm day 9% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 7% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Tue, Oct 6

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


WN 4273 Southwest	MSY 06:39	DAL 08:18	2%	1%	0.7%	no record
WN 4274 Southwest	MSY 08:36	DAL 10:09	5%	1%	0.7%	no record
WN 852 Southwest	MSY 11:41	DAL 13:08	8%	1%	0.6%	no record
WN 3175 Southwest	MSY 14:03	DAL 15:33	13%	2%	0.6%	no record
WN 4976 Southwest	MSY 16:37	DAL 18:11	15%	3%	0.6%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON