Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 8:00 PM ET · 5 nonstops

Tue, Oct 6: WN 2927 at 05:59 is the safest bet, 3% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 11–17%.

Safest bet that day WN 2927 MSY 05:59 → DEN 07:51 · 3% chance 15+ min late Riskiest WN 2929 MSY 18:02 → DEN 19:45 · 17% chance 15+ min late

Against a calm day 11% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 9% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Tue, Oct 6

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


WN 2927 Southwest	MSY 05:59	DEN 07:51	3%	1%	0.6%	no record
UA 1376 United Flight history →	MSY 08:04	DEN 10:05	9%	2%	0.7%	86%
UA 2216 United Flight history →	MSY 17:54	DEN 20:17	11%	3%	0.6%	84%
UA 2781 United	MSY 14:27	DEN 16:40	13%	3%	0.6%	no record
WN 2929 Southwest	MSY 18:02	DEN 19:45	17%	2%	0.6%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON