Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 9:00 PM ET · 5 nonstops

Tue, Oct 6 looks like a normal day here: all 5 nonstops are 13–23% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Safest bet that day AA 1470 MSY 07:42 → DFW 09:35 · 13% chance 15+ min late · usually 77% on time Riskiest AA 2627 MSY 15:43 → DFW 17:26 · 23% chance 15+ min late

Against a calm day 18% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 15% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Tue, Oct 6

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


AA 1470 American Flight history →	MSY 07:42	DFW 09:35	13%	3%	0.8%	77%
AA 2157 American Flight history →	MSY 08:51	DFW 10:47	14%	3%	0.8%	76%
AA 1650 American	MSY 12:18	DFW 14:09	16%	4%	0.8%	no record
AA 1811 American	MSY 18:34	DFW 20:24	22%	6%	0.8%	no record
AA 2627 American	MSY 15:43	DFW 17:26	23%	5%	0.7%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON