Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 8:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Tue, Oct 6: one nonstop, DL 2790 at 11:19, with a 6% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day


DL 2790 Delta Flight history →	MSY 11:19	DTW 14:48	6%	2%	0.6%	85%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Detroit on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Detroit is 1 h ahead of New Orleans). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	MSY 05:19 → ATL 07:54DL 1547	3h 06m Atlanta	ATL 11:00 → DTW 12:56DL 1240	6h 37m	100%	91%
Delta Details →	MSY 07:28 → ATL 10:00DL 2522	3h 47m Atlanta	ATL 13:47 → DTW 15:42DL 1031	7h 14m	99%	90%
Delta Details →	MSY 10:20 → JFK 14:31DL 1322	1h 59m New York	JFK 16:30 → DTW 18:55DL 2443	7h 35m	97%	90%
Delta Details →	MSY 09:13 → ATL 11:43DL 3128	3h 45m Atlanta	ATL 15:28 → DTW 17:27DL 1005	7h 14m	99%	88%
Delta Details →	MSY 12:42 → ATL 15:16DL 2542	2h 55m Atlanta	ATL 18:11 → DTW 20:13DL 1478	6h 31m	98%	87%
Delta Details →	MSY 15:22 → ATL 18:01DL 3157	3h 44m Atlanta	ATL 21:45 → DTW 23:44DL 651	7h 22m	99%	87%
United Details →	MSY 09:53 → IAH 11:12UA 2105	2h 46m Houston	IAH 13:58 → DTW 17:59UA 6131 · flown by Mesa	7h 06m	99%	87%
Delta Details →	MSY 16:59 → ATL 19:32DL 3146	3h 27m Atlanta	ATL 22:59 → DTW 00:59 +1DL 2940	7h 00m	96%	86%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON