tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 9:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Tue, Oct 6 looks like a normal day here: all 2 nonstops are 11–18% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 2 nonstops →
B6 1822 JetBlue Flight history → MSY 07:45 FLL 10:42 11% 3% 0.8% 84%
B6 2722 JetBlue Flight history → MSY 13:39 FLL 16:59 18% 6% 1.3% 51%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Fort Lauderdale on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Fort Lauderdale is 1 h ahead of New Orleans). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
DeltaDetails → MSY 06:20 → ATL 08:57DL 1534 3h 34m Atlanta ATL 12:31 → FLL 14:27DL 1341 7h 07m 100% 89%
DeltaDetails → MSY 05:19 → ATL 07:54DL 1547 2h 31m Atlanta ATL 10:25 → FLL 12:23DL 1512 6h 04m 99% 89%
DeltaDetails → MSY 07:28 → ATL 10:00DL 2522 3h 45m Atlanta ATL 13:45 → FLL 15:41DL 1413 7h 13m 99% 87%
UnitedDetails → MSY 07:00 → IAH 08:19UA 2124 1h 59m Houston IAH 10:18 → FLL 14:10UA 2670 6h 10m 98% 86%
SouthwestDetails → MSY 10:12 → BNA 11:52WN 1146 2h 32m Nashville BNA 14:24 → FLL 17:37WN 1317 6h 25m 100% 86%
DeltaDetails → MSY 09:13 → ATL 11:43DL 3128 3h 42m Atlanta ATL 15:25 → FLL 17:23DL 2345 7h 10m 98% 83%
UnitedDetails → MSY 12:07 → IAH 13:26UA 2253 3h 09m Houston IAH 16:35 → FLL 20:22UA 277 7h 15m 99% 82%
UnitedDetails → MSY 14:21 → IAH 15:40UA 2296 3h 59m Houston IAH 19:39 → FLL 23:26UA 1956 8h 05m 99% 82%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON