Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 4:00 PM ET · 6 nonstops

Tue, Oct 6: WN 1980 at 09:43 is the safest bet, 5% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 17–18%.

Safest bet that day WN 1980 MSY 09:43 → HOU 11:14 · 5% chance 15+ min late Riskiest WN 2935 MSY 16:11 → HOU 17:25 · 18% chance 15+ min late

Against a calm day 12% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 7% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Tue, Oct 6

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


WN 1980 Southwest	MSY 09:43	HOU 11:14	5%	1%	0.6%	no record
WN 2931 Southwest	MSY 07:09	HOU 08:30	5%	1%	0.7%	no record
WN 2932 Southwest	MSY 12:41	HOU 14:21	9%	2%	0.6%	no record
WN 1283 Southwest	MSY 13:42	HOU 14:55	16%	2%	0.6%	no record
WN 2979 Southwest	MSY 18:50	HOU 20:05	17%	4%	0.6%	no record
WN 2935 Southwest	MSY 16:11	HOU 17:25	18%	3%	0.6%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON