Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 10:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Tomorrow: one nonstop, UA 2497 at 12:17, with a 6% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day


UA 2497 United Flight history →	MSY 12:17	IAD 15:50	6%	2%	0.7%	92%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Dulles on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Dulles is 1 h ahead of New Orleans). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	MSY 06:20 → ATL 08:57DL 1534	3h 20m Atlanta	ATL 12:17 → IAD 14:01DL 2135	6h 41m	100%	92%
Delta Details →	MSY 05:19 → ATL 07:54DL 1547	1h 56m Atlanta	ATL 09:50 → IAD 11:37DL 1444	5h 18m	98%	90%
Delta Details →	MSY 09:13 → ATL 11:43DL 3128	3h 16m Atlanta	ATL 14:59 → IAD 16:46DL 1695	6h 33m	98%	88%
United Details →	MSY 07:00 → IAH 08:19UA 2124	3h 54m Houston	IAH 12:13 → IAD 16:30UA 2366	8h 30m	99%	87%
Delta Details →	MSY 12:42 → ATL 15:16DL 2542	2h 49m Atlanta	ATL 18:05 → IAD 19:54DL 1309	6h 12m	98%	86%
United Details →	MSY 09:53 → IAH 11:12UA 2105	3h 41m Houston	IAH 14:53 → IAD 19:15UA 1178	8h 22m	99%	86%
United Details →	MSY 12:07 → IAH 13:26UA 2253	3h 09m Houston	IAH 16:35 → IAD 20:46UA 2388	7h 39m	99%	85%
Delta Details →	MSY 16:59 → ATL 19:32DL 3146	3h 21m Atlanta	ATL 22:53 → IAD 00:41 +1DL 2549	6h 42m	96%	84%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON