Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 7:00 PM ET · 8 nonstops

Tomorrow looks like a normal day here: all 8 nonstops are 6–15% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Safest bet that day OO 5365 MSY 05:24 → IAH 07:01 · 6% chance 15+ min late Riskiest UA 2296 MSY 14:21 → IAH 15:40 · 15% chance 15+ min late · usually 85% on time

Against a calm day 12% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 10% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Tue, Oct 6

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


OO 5365 SkyWest	MSY 05:24	IAH 07:01	6%	4%	0.4%	no record
UA 2105 United Flight history →	MSY 09:53	IAH 11:12	9%	2%	0.6%	90%
UA 2124 United Flight history →	MSY 07:00	IAH 08:19	11%	3%	0.4%	73%
YV 6223 Mesa	MSY 19:10	IAH 20:40	12%	5%	1.2%	no record
UA 1532 United Flight history →	MSY 15:43	IAH 17:27	13%	3%	0.6%	81%
UA 2253 United Flight history →	MSY 12:07	IAH 13:26	14%	2%	0.6%	80%
UA 2119 United	MSY 17:28	IAH 19:11	15%	3%	0.6%	no record
UA 2296 United Flight history →	MSY 14:21	IAH 15:40	15%	2%	0.6%	85%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON