tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 6:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Tue, Oct 6 looks like a normal day here: all 2 nonstops are 7–9% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 2 nonstops →
DL 1322 Delta Flight history → MSY 10:20 JFK 14:31 7% 2% 0.9% 88%
DL 1387 Delta Flight history → MSY 18:53 JFK 22:56 9% 3% 0.8% 84%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach New York on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (New York is 1 h ahead of New Orleans). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
DeltaDetails → MSY 05:19 → ATL 07:54DL 1547 3h 11m Atlanta ATL 11:05 → JFK 13:20DL 2380 7h 01m 100% 91%
DeltaDetails → MSY 07:28 → ATL 10:00DL 2522 3h 55m Atlanta ATL 13:55 → JFK 16:29DL 1575 8h 01m 99% 91%
DeltaDetails → MSY 12:42 → ATL 15:16DL 2542 3h 29m Atlanta ATL 18:45 → JFK 21:29DL 2398 7h 47m 98% 90%
DeltaDetails → MSY 11:19 → DTW 14:48DL 2790 1h 30m Detroit DTW 16:18 → JFK 18:29DL 2934 6h 10m 98% 89%
DeltaDetails → MSY 16:59 → ATL 19:32DL 3146 3h 02m Atlanta ATL 22:34 → JFK 00:46 +1DL 1632 6h 47m 96% 87%
AmericanDetails → MSY 05:57 → MIA 09:11AA 867 1h 30m Miami MIA 10:41 → JFK 13:40AA 2062 6h 43m 98% 86%
DeltaDetails → MSY 13:30 → SLC 16:01DL 736 1h 09m Salt Lake City SLC 17:10 → JFK 23:47DL 697 9h 17m 95% 85%
AmericanDetails → MSY 07:42 → DFW 09:35AA 1470 3h 34m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 13:09 → JFK 17:43AA 1058 9h 01m 98% 85%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON