Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 8:00 PM ET · 3 nonstops

Tue, Oct 6: DL 2085 at 08:03 is the safest bet, 10% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 13–20%.

Safest bet that day DL 2085 MSY 08:03 → LAX 10:00 · 10% chance 15+ min late · usually 94% on time Riskiest WN 3056 MSY 15:22 → LAX 17:27 · 20% chance 15+ min late

Against a calm day 14% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 11% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Tue, Oct 6

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


DL 2085 Delta Flight history →	MSY 08:03	LAX 10:00	10%	2%	0.7%	94%
DL 872 Delta	MSY 15:19	LAX 17:32	13%	2%	0.7%	no record
WN 3056 Southwest	MSY 15:22	LAX 17:27	20%	3%	0.6%	no record

Alternatives with one stop that day

All connections →


United Details →	MSY 14:21 → IAH 15:40UA 2296	51m Houston	IAH 16:31 → LAX 18:08UA 1743	5h 47m	83%	74%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON