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Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 7:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Tue, Oct 6: Southwest via Nashville, leaving 10:12, is the safest bet: 93% chance of reaching Kansas City on time.

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Kansas City on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
SouthwestDetails → MSY 10:12 → BNA 11:52WN 1146 2h 53m Nashville BNA 14:45 → MCI 16:32WN 560 6h 20m 100% 93%
DeltaDetails → MSY 05:19 → ATL 07:54DL 1547 3h 11m Atlanta ATL 11:05 → MCI 12:13DL 2747 6h 54m 100% 91%
DeltaDetails → MSY 07:28 → ATL 10:00DL 2522 3h 24m Atlanta ATL 13:24 → MCI 14:29DL 1443 7h 01m 99% 89%
UnitedDetails → MSY 08:04 → DEN 10:05UA 1376 3h 35m Denver DEN 13:40 → MCI 16:22UA 586 8h 18m 100% 88%
DeltaDetails → MSY 11:19 → DTW 14:48DL 2790 1h 06m Detroit DTW 15:54 → MCI 16:54DL 2761 5h 35m 96% 88%
DeltaDetails → MSY 09:13 → ATL 11:43DL 3128 3h 37m Atlanta ATL 15:20 → MCI 16:30DL 1660 7h 17m 99% 87%
UnitedDetails → MSY 12:17 → IAD 15:50UA 2497 2h 14m Dulles IAD 18:04 → MCI 19:58UA 1165 7h 41m 98% 87%
DeltaDetails → MSY 06:20 → ATL 08:57DL 1534 1h 03m Atlanta ATL 10:00 → MCI 11:11DL 2908 4h 51m 95% 86%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON