Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 4:00 AM ET · connections flying that day

Tomorrow looks like a normal day here: all 2 nonstops are 6–14% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day


WN 1585 Southwest	MSY 07:54	MDW 10:18	6%	1%	0.6%	no record
WN 4486 Southwest	MSY 13:08	MDW 15:32	14%	2%	0.6%	no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Chicago on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	MSY 05:19 → ATL 07:54DL 1547	3h 06m Atlanta	ATL 11:00 → MDW 11:56DL 2417	6h 37m	100%	89%
Southwest Details →	MSY 10:12 → BNA 11:52WN 1146	3h 53m Nashville	BNA 15:45 → MDW 17:15WN 575	7h 03m	100%	87%
Delta Details →	MSY 09:13 → ATL 11:43DL 3128	3h 32m Atlanta	ATL 15:15 → MDW 16:15DL 1728	7h 02m	99%	87%
Delta Details →	MSY 15:22 → ATL 18:01DL 3157	3h 14m Atlanta	ATL 21:15 → MDW 22:15DL 1076	6h 53m	99%	85%
Delta Details →	MSY 11:19 → DTW 14:48DL 2790	3h 19m Detroit	DTW 18:07 → MDW 18:25DL 4677 · flown by Endeavor	7h 10m	99%	58%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON