Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 7:00 AM ET · 6 nonstops

Tomorrow: UA 2844 at 06:57 is the safest bet, 7% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 8–17%.

Safest bet that day UA 2844 MSY 06:57 → ORD 09:34 · 7% chance 15+ min late Riskiest OO 5375 MSY 17:28 → ORD 20:16 · 17% chance 15+ min late

Against a calm day 11% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 9% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Tue, Oct 6

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


UA 2844 United	MSY 06:57	ORD 09:34	7%	2%	0.7%	no record
AA 3229 American	MSY 06:02	ORD 08:53	8%	2%	0.9%	no record
UA 1677 United Flight history →	MSY 10:19	ORD 13:03	8%	3%	0.6%	83%
AA 4040 American flown by Envoy Flight history →	MSY 11:30	ORD 14:13	10%	2%	0.7%	81%
UA 1301 United Flight history →	MSY 14:15	ORD 16:56	14%	3%	0.6%	66%
OO 5375 SkyWest	MSY 17:28	ORD 20:16	17%	5%	0.7%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON