Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 6:00 AM ET · connections flying that day

Tomorrow: one nonstop, WN 366 at 10:24, with a 10% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day


WN 366 Southwest	MSY 10:24	PHX 11:45	10%	1%	0.6%	no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Phoenix on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Phoenix is 2 h behind New Orleans). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	MSY 11:19 → DTW 14:48DL 2790	3h 38m Detroit	DTW 18:26 → PHX 19:47DL 1135	10h 28m	99%	88%
Delta Details →	MSY 08:03 → LAX 10:00DL 2085	3h 46m Los Angeles	LAX 13:46 → PHX 15:21DL 3894 · flown by SkyWest	9h 18m	99%	88%
United Details →	MSY 08:04 → DEN 10:05UA 1376	3h 30m Denver	DEN 13:35 → PHX 14:45UA 631	8h 41m	100%	88%
Delta Details →	MSY 05:32 → ATL 07:58DL 1547	3h 12m Atlanta	ATL 11:10 → PHX 12:03DL 796	8h 31m	100%	88%
Southwest Details →	MSY 10:12 → BNA 11:52WN 1146	2h 28m Nashville	BNA 14:20 → PHX 15:55WN 639	7h 43m	100%	87%
Delta Details →	MSY 07:28 → ATL 10:00DL 2522	3h 30m Atlanta	ATL 13:30 → PHX 14:18DL 366	8h 50m	99%	87%
United Details →	MSY 12:17 → IAD 15:50UA 2497	2h 00m Dulles	IAD 17:50 → PHX 19:46UA 1938	9h 29m	98%	87%
American Details →	MSY 05:42 → DFW 07:31AA 468	3h 09m Dallas-Fort Worth	DFW 10:40 → PHX 11:24AA 2905	7h 42m	98%	86%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON