tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 4:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Tomorrow: United via Bush, leaving 07:00, is the safest bet: 81% chance of reaching San Diego on time; the tightest one-ticket connections make it only 70% of the time.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →
WN 1971 Southwest MSY 17:00 SAN 18:55 33% 4% 0.7% no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach San Diego on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (San Diego is 2 h behind New Orleans). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
DeltaDetails → MSY 06:20 → ATL 08:57DL 1534 2h 53m Atlanta ATL 11:50 → SAN 13:08DL 540 8h 48m 99% 88%
DeltaDetails → MSY 09:13 → ATL 11:43DL 3128 3h 53m Atlanta ATL 15:36 → SAN 17:00DL 843 9h 47m 98% 86%
DeltaDetails → MSY 05:31 → ATL 08:02DL 1547 1h 41m Atlanta ATL 09:43 → SAN 11:15DL 924 7h 44m 97% 85%
UnitedDetails → MSY 07:00 → IAH 08:19UA 2124 3h 41m Houston IAH 12:00 → SAN 13:21UA 2399 8h 21m 99% 84%
DeltaDetails → MSY 12:42 → ATL 15:16DL 2542 2h 39m Atlanta ATL 17:55 → SAN 19:37DL 712 8h 55m 97% 83%
DeltaDetails → MSY 11:19 → DTW 14:48DL 2790 1h 47m Detroit DTW 16:35 → SAN 18:14DL 369 8h 55m 98% 82%
UnitedDetails → MSY 10:29 → ORD 13:15UA 1677 2h 52m Chicago ORD 16:07 → SAN 18:22UA 2138 9h 53m 97% 82%
UnitedDetails → MSY 09:53 → IAH 11:12UA 2105 3h 15m Houston IAH 14:27 → SAN 16:01UA 1114 8h 08m 98% 82%
Tight connection: often missed
DeltaDetails → MSY 06:20 → ATL 08:57DL 1534 46m Atlanta ATL 09:43 → SAN 11:15DL 924 6h 55m 70% 62%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON