Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 11:00 AM ET · connections flying that day

Tomorrow: Delta via Atlanta, leaving 09:13, is the safest bet: 78% chance of reaching Seattle on time.

Nonstops that day


AS 569 Alaska Flight history →	MSY 17:19	SEA 20:25	19%	6%	0.6%	72%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Seattle on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Seattle is 2 h behind New Orleans). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	MSY 16:30 → MSP 19:15DL 2695	2h 53m Minneapolis	MSP 22:08 → SEA 23:58DL 505	9h 28m	99%	90%
Delta Details →	MSY 06:20 → ATL 08:57DL 1534	3h 36m Atlanta	ATL 12:33 → SEA 14:50DL 629	10h 30m	100%	89%
Delta Details →	MSY 09:13 → ATL 11:43DL 3128	2h 55m Atlanta	ATL 14:38 → SEA 16:49DL 481	9h 36m	99%	87%
Delta Details →	MSY 10:34 → ATL 13:05DL 1424	3h 40m Atlanta	ATL 16:45 → SEA 19:05DL 472	10h 31m	99%	87%
Delta Details →	MSY 10:28 → JFK 14:15DL 1368	2h 45m New York	JFK 17:00 → SEA 20:36DL 740	12h 08m	98%	85%
Delta Details →	MSY 15:22 → ATL 18:01DL 3157	3h 34m Atlanta	ATL 21:35 → SEA 23:59DL 903	10h 37m	99%	85%
United Details →	MSY 10:29 → ORD 13:11UA 1677	3h 09m Chicago	ORD 16:20 → SEA 19:06UA 1801	10h 37m	100%	84%
Delta Details →	MSY 12:42 → ATL 15:16DL 2542	2h 34m Atlanta	ATL 17:50 → SEA 20:11DL 714	9h 29m	98%	84%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON