tailodds FORECAST
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Any day
Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 12:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Tomorrow: American via DFW, leaving 05:39, is the safest bet: 79% chance of reaching San Francisco on time; the tightest one-ticket connections make it only 69% of the time.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →
UA 1973 United Flight history → MSY 08:02 SFO 10:39 10% 3% 0.7% 75%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach San Francisco on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (San Francisco is 2 h behind New Orleans). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
UnitedDetails → MSY 12:17 → IAD 15:50UA 2497 2h 39m Dulles IAD 18:29 → SFO 21:18UA 2832 11h 01m 99% 87%
AmericanDetails → MSY 06:15 → CLT 09:15AA 424 2h 48m Charlotte CLT 12:03 → SFO 14:23AA 398 10h 08m 98% 86%
DeltaDetails → MSY 07:28 → ATL 10:00DL 2522 3h 50m Atlanta ATL 13:50 → SFO 15:48DL 823 10h 20m 99% 86%
UnitedDetails → MSY 08:04 → DEN 10:05UA 1376 3h 20m Denver DEN 13:25 → SFO 15:09UA 1812 9h 05m 99% 85%
DeltaDetails → MSY 10:28 → JFK 14:15DL 1368 2h 15m New York JFK 16:30 → SFO 20:06DL 365 11h 38m 97% 85%
DeltaDetails → MSY 15:22 → ATL 18:01DL 3157 3h 54m Atlanta ATL 21:55 → SFO 00:04 +1DL 656 10h 42m 99% 85%
UnitedDetails → MSY 12:07 → IAH 13:26UA 2253 3h 41m Houston IAH 17:07 → SFO 19:10UA 1134 9h 03m 100% 85%
DeltaDetails → MSY 05:32 → ATL 08:01DL 1547 1h 39m Atlanta ATL 09:40 → SFO 11:33DL 672 8h 01m 97% 84%
Tight connection: often missed
JetBlueDetails → MSY 17:06 → BOS 21:34B6 400 51m Boston BOS 22:25 → SFO 01:58 +1B6 413 10h 52m 69% 58%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON