Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 7:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Tomorrow: one nonstop, DL 736 at 13:30, with a 7% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day


DL 736 Delta Flight history →	MSY 13:30	SLC 16:01	7%	2%	0.5%	92%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Salt Lake City on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Salt Lake City is 1 h behind New Orleans). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	MSY 06:20 → ATL 08:57DL 1534	2h 59m Atlanta	ATL 11:56 → SLC 13:50DL 663	8h 30m	99%	91%
Delta Details →	MSY 05:31 → ATL 08:03DL 1547	2h 07m Atlanta	ATL 10:10 → SLC 12:10DL 387	7h 39m	98%	91%
Delta Details →	MSY 07:28 → ATL 10:00DL 2522	3h 55m Atlanta	ATL 13:55 → SLC 15:51DL 423	9h 23m	99%	89%
Delta Details →	MSY 11:19 → DTW 14:48DL 2790	2h 52m Detroit	DTW 17:40 → SLC 19:34DL 765	9h 15m	99%	88%
Delta Details →	MSY 09:13 → ATL 11:43DL 3128	3h 37m Atlanta	ATL 15:20 → SLC 17:18DL 526	9h 05m	99%	88%
Delta Details →	MSY 10:27 → JFK 14:17DL 1368	2h 10m New York	JFK 16:27 → SLC 19:55DL 887	10h 28m	97%	87%
Delta Details →	MSY 08:03 → LAX 10:00DL 2085	3h 10m Los Angeles	LAX 13:10 → SLC 16:03DL 1647	9h 00m	99%	87%
United Details →	MSY 07:00 → IAH 08:19UA 2124	1h 41m Houston	IAH 10:00 → SLC 12:34UA 2242	6h 34m	97%	87%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON