tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 9:00 AM ET · connections flying that day

Tomorrow: WN 3138 at 07:45 is the safest bet, 7% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 22%.

Nonstops that day

All 2 nonstops →
WN 3138 Southwest MSY 07:45 STL 09:38 7% 1% 0.6% no record
WN 1485 Southwest MSY 18:21 STL 20:11 22% 4% 0.6% no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach St Louis on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
DeltaDetails → MSY 11:19 → DTW 14:48DL 2790 1h 57m Detroit DTW 16:45 → STL 17:24DL 2822 6h 05m 99% 90%
SouthwestDetails → MSY 10:12 → BNA 11:52WN 1146 3h 41m Nashville BNA 15:33 → STL 16:49WN 1310 6h 37m 100% 88%
DeltaDetails → MSY 09:13 → ATL 11:43DL 3128 3h 20m Atlanta ATL 15:03 → STL 15:52DL 543 6h 39m 99% 88%
DeltaDetails → MSY 05:32 → ATL 08:00DL 1547 1h 04m Atlanta ATL 09:04 → STL 09:43DL 1400 4h 11m 95% 87%
UnitedDetails → MSY 07:00 → IAH 08:19UA 2124 3h 29m Houston IAH 11:48 → STL 14:00UA 2042 7h 00m 99% 87%
DeltaDetails → MSY 12:42 → ATL 15:16DL 2542 3h 53m Atlanta ATL 19:09 → STL 19:58DL 2833 7h 16m 99% 87%
DeltaDetails → MSY 16:59 → ATL 19:32DL 3146 3h 38m Atlanta ATL 23:10 → STL 23:53DL 1403 6h 54m 97% 86%
DeltaDetails → MSY 16:30 → MSP 19:15DL 2695 2h 35m Minneapolis MSP 21:50 → STL 23:22DL 1609 6h 52m 99% 85%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON