Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 8:00 PM ET · 8 nonstops

Tue, Oct 6 looks like a normal day here: all 7 nonstops are 7–14% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Safest bet that day OH 5176 MYR 06:29 → CLT 07:34 · 7% chance 15+ min late Riskiest AA 1417 MYR 19:20 → CLT 20:16 · 14% chance 15+ min late · usually 73% on time

Against a calm day 9% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 9% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Tue, Oct 6

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort. Dimmed: airlines we don’t forecast yet, shown with their 12-month record if they usually fly that weekday.


OH 5176 PSA	MYR 06:29	CLT 07:34	7%	2%	0.7%	no record
OH 5290 PSA	MYR 11:09	CLT 12:15	7%	2%	0.7%	no record
OH 5188 PSA	MYR 13:40	CLT 14:49	8%	2%	0.7%	no record
AA 3296 American Flight history →	MYR 08:08	CLT 09:14	8%	2%	0.8%	90%
AA 2431 American Flight history →	MYR 12:02	CLT 13:15	9%	3%	0.7%	96%
AA 2943 American Flight history →	MYR 17:36	CLT 18:44	13%	3%	0.7%	79%
AA 1417 American Flight history →	MYR 19:20	CLT 20:16	14%	3%	0.7%	73%
AA 5878 American flown by Piedmont no forecast: 12-month record	MYR 09:15	CLT 10:32	0%	0%	0.0%	100%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON