tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 9:00 AM ET · connections flying that day

Tomorrow looks like a normal day here: all 2 nonstops are 6–15% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 2 nonstops →
YX 4428 Republic MYR 11:57 DCA 13:36 6% 2% 0.7% no record
AA 5266 American flown by PSA Flight history → MYR 19:00 DCA 20:35 15% 8% 1.0% 88%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Washington on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
DeltaDetails → MYR 06:00 → ATL 07:19DL 3162 2h 21m Atlanta ATL 09:40 → DCA 11:27DL 380 5h 27m 98% 89%
DeltaDetails → MYR 11:34 → DTW 13:31DL 1145 3h 47m Detroit DTW 17:18 → DCA 18:59DL 2030 7h 25m 100% 85%
DeltaDetails → MYR 11:42 → ATL 13:04DL 3047 3h 36m Atlanta ATL 16:40 → DCA 18:37DL 950 6h 55m 100% 85%
DeltaDetails → MYR 13:51 → ATL 15:14DL 3182 3h 41m Atlanta ATL 18:55 → DCA 20:47DL 325 6h 56m 98% 83%
AmericanDetails → MYR 17:36 → CLT 18:44AA 2943 3h 43m Charlotte CLT 22:27 → DCA 23:53AA 1269 6h 17m 97% 81%
AmericanDetails → MYR 11:19 → PHL 13:08AA 5848 · flown by Piedmont 3h 03m Philadelphia PHL 16:11 → DCA 17:23AA 5363 · flown by PSA 6h 04m 98% 80%
AmericanDetails → MYR 12:02 → CLT 13:15AA 2431 1h 19m Charlotte CLT 14:34 → DCA 16:13AA 2839 4h 11m 89% 72%
Tight connection: often missed
AmericanDetails → MYR 13:27 → PHL 15:14AA 6120 · flown by Piedmont 57m Philadelphia PHL 16:11 → DCA 17:23AA 5363 · flown by PSA 3h 56m 73% 59%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON