Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 9:00 AM ET · connections flying that day

Tomorrow: Delta via Atlanta, leaving 06:00, is the safest bet: 91% chance of reaching Denver on time.

Best connections that day, one ticket

Ranked by chance you reach Denver on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Denver is 2 h behind Myrtle Beach). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	MYR 06:00 → ATL 07:19DL 3162	2h 35m Atlanta	ATL 09:54 → DEN 11:05DL 995	7h 05m	99%	91%
American Details →	MYR 09:15 → CLT 10:33AA 5878 · flown by Piedmont	2h 36m Charlotte	CLT 13:09 → DEN 14:39AA 696	7h 24m	100%	90%
Delta Details →	MYR 11:34 → DTW 13:31DL 1145	2h 50m Detroit	DTW 16:21 → DEN 17:27DL 2431	7h 53m	99%	89%
United Details →	MYR 10:34 → IAD 12:11UA 4324 · flown by CommuteAir	3h 45m Dulles	IAD 15:56 → DEN 18:03UA 395	9h 29m	99%	89%
Delta Details →	MYR 11:42 → ATL 13:04DL 3047	1h 56m Atlanta	ATL 15:00 → DEN 16:11DL 493	6h 29m	99%	87%
Delta Details →	MYR 13:51 → ATL 15:14DL 3182	1h 29m Atlanta	ATL 16:43 → DEN 17:56DL 519	6h 05m	96%	83%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON