Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 9:00 AM ET · connections flying that day

Tomorrow: one nonstop, DL 1145 at 11:34, with a 5% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day


DL 1145 Delta Flight history →	MYR 11:34	DTW 13:31	5%	2%	0.6%	86%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Detroit on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	MYR 06:00 → ATL 07:19DL 3162	3h 41m Atlanta	ATL 11:00 → DTW 12:56DL 1240	6h 56m	99%	90%
American Details →	MYR 09:15 → CLT 10:33AA 5878 · flown by Piedmont	1h 51m Charlotte	CLT 12:24 → DTW 14:15AA 1683	5h 00m	100%	90%
Delta Details →	MYR 11:42 → ATL 13:04DL 3047	2h 24m Atlanta	ATL 15:28 → DTW 17:27DL 1005	5h 45m	99%	89%
Delta Details →	MYR 13:51 → ATL 15:14DL 3182	2h 57m Atlanta	ATL 18:11 → DTW 20:13DL 1478	6h 22m	98%	88%
Delta Details →	MYR 20:02 → ATL 21:35DL 1093	1h 24m Atlanta	ATL 22:59 → DTW 00:59 +1DL 2940	4h 57m	96%	86%
American Details →	MYR 17:36 → CLT 18:44AA 2943	2h 02m Charlotte	CLT 20:46 → DTW 22:34AA 419	4h 58m	95%	79%
American Details →	MYR 12:02 → CLT 13:15AA 2431	2h 26m Charlotte	CLT 15:41 → DTW 17:27AA 1134	5h 25m	89%	76%
American Details →	MYR 18:45 → PHL 20:34AA 5849 · flown by Piedmont	1h 20m Philadelphia	PHL 21:54 → DTW 23:36AA 5418 · flown by PSA	4h 51m	83%	68%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON