Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 5:00 PM ET · 3 nonstops

Tue, Oct 6 looks like a normal day here: all 3 nonstops are 8–14% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Safest bet that day UA 1342 MYR 10:36 → EWR 12:39 · 8% chance 15+ min late Riskiest UA 3714 MYR 18:50 → EWR 20:59 · 14% chance 15+ min late · usually 69% on time

Against a calm day 10% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 8% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Tue, Oct 6

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


UA 1342 United	MYR 10:36	EWR 12:39	8%	3%	0.8%	no record
YX 3489 Republic	MYR 12:30	EWR 14:48	9%	2%	0.8%	no record
UA 3714 United flown by Republic Flight history →	MYR 18:50	EWR 20:59	14%	4%	1.0%	69%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON