Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 1:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Tomorrow: one nonstop, C5 4264 at 10:21, with a 9% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day


C5 4264 CommuteAir	MYR 10:21	IAD 11:57	9%	2%	1.2%	no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Dulles on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	MYR 11:34 → DTW 13:31DL 1145	1h 37m Detroit	DTW 15:08 → IAD 16:41DL 1787	5h 07m	98%	88%
Delta Details →	MYR 06:00 → ATL 07:19DL 3162	2h 31m Atlanta	ATL 09:50 → IAD 11:37DL 1444	5h 37m	99%	88%
Delta Details →	MYR 11:42 → ATL 13:04DL 3047	1h 55m Atlanta	ATL 14:59 → IAD 16:46DL 1695	5h 04m	98%	86%
Delta Details →	MYR 13:51 → ATL 15:14DL 3182	2h 51m Atlanta	ATL 18:05 → IAD 19:54DL 1309	6h 03m	97%	85%
American Details →	MYR 13:01 → CLT 14:14AA 5315 · flown by PSA	1h 52m Charlotte	CLT 16:06 → IAD 17:44AA 5447 · flown by PSA	4h 43m	96%	83%
Delta Details →	MYR 20:02 → ATL 21:35DL 1093	1h 18m Atlanta	ATL 22:53 → IAD 00:41 +1DL 2549	4h 39m	95%	82%
American Details →	MYR 17:36 → CLT 18:44AA 2943	3h 42m Charlotte	CLT 22:26 → IAD 23:44AA 2608	6h 08m	97%	78%
United Details →	MYR 18:50 → EWR 20:59UA 3714 · flown by Republic	51m Newark	EWR 21:50 → IAD 23:19UA 1784	4h 29m	80%	67%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON