tailodds FORECAST
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Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 5:00 AM ET · connections flying that day

Tomorrow: Delta via Atlanta, leaving 06:00, is the safest bet: 90% chance of reaching New York on time.

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach New York on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
DeltaDetails → MYR 06:00 → ATL 07:19DL 3162 3h 11m Atlanta ATL 10:30 → LGA 12:42DL 371 6h 42m 99% 90%
DeltaDetails → MYR 11:42 → ATL 13:04DL 3047 2h 26m Atlanta ATL 15:30 → LGA 17:49DL 433 6h 07m 99% 86%
AmericanDetails → MYR 09:15 → CLT 10:33AA 5878 · flown by Piedmont 1h 01m Charlotte CLT 11:34 → LGA 13:28AA 2268 4h 12m 100% 86%
DeltaDetails → MYR 13:51 → ATL 15:14DL 3182 3h 46m Atlanta ATL 19:00 → LGA 21:28DL 468 7h 37m 98% 85%
AmericanDetails → MYR 19:00 → DCA 20:35AA 5266 · flown by PSA 2h 02m Washington DCA 22:37 → LGA 00:00 +1AA 4719 · flown by Republic 5h 00m 96% 84%
AmericanDetails → MYR 08:08 → CLT 09:14AA 3296 3h 57m Charlotte CLT 13:11 → LGA 15:05AA 2927 6h 57m 100% 80%
AmericanDetails → MYR 17:36 → CLT 18:44AA 2943 3h 11m Charlotte CLT 21:55 → LGA 23:34AA 2031 5h 58m 95% 75%
AmericanDetails → MYR 12:02 → CLT 13:15AA 2431 2h 02m Charlotte CLT 15:17 → LGA 17:15AA 1942 5h 13m 89% 68%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON