Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 5:00 AM ET · connections flying that day

Tomorrow: Delta via Atlanta, leaving 06:00, is the safest bet: 90% chance of reaching Minneapolis on time.

Best connections that day, one ticket

Ranked by chance you reach Minneapolis on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Minneapolis is 1 h behind Myrtle Beach). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	MYR 06:00 → ATL 07:19DL 3162	2h 36m Atlanta	ATL 09:55 → MSP 11:30DL 2090	6h 30m	99%	90%
American Details →	MYR 09:15 → CLT 10:33AA 5878 · flown by Piedmont	2h 02m Charlotte	CLT 12:35 → MSP 14:30AA 1671	6h 15m	100%	89%
Delta Details →	MYR 11:34 → DTW 13:31DL 1145	2h 49m Detroit	DTW 16:20 → MSP 17:12DL 2203	6h 38m	99%	87%
Delta Details →	MYR 11:42 → ATL 13:04DL 3047	1h 27m Atlanta	ATL 14:31 → MSP 16:06DL 2825	5h 24m	98%	86%
Delta Details →	MYR 20:02 → ATL 21:35DL 1093	1h 25m Atlanta	ATL 23:00 → MSP 00:39 +1DL 1310	5h 37m	95%	85%
Delta Details →	MYR 13:51 → ATL 15:14DL 3182	3h 34m Atlanta	ATL 18:48 → MSP 20:22DL 2654	7h 31m	98%	84%
United Details →	MYR 18:50 → EWR 20:59UA 3714 · flown by Republic	56m Newark	EWR 21:55 → MSP 23:59UA 1331	6h 09m	83%	67%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON