tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 10:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Tomorrow: American via Charlotte, leaving 19:20, is the safest bet: 72% chance of reaching Chicago on time.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →
YX 3402 Republic MYR 16:49 ORD 18:30 10% 3% 0.6% no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Chicago on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Chicago is 1 h behind Myrtle Beach). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
AmericanDetails → MYR 08:08 → CLT 09:14AA 3296 1h 47m Charlotte CLT 11:01 → ORD 12:19AA 2908 5h 11m 98% 91%
DeltaDetails → MYR 06:00 → ATL 07:19DL 3162 1h 43m Atlanta ATL 09:02 → ORD 10:10DL 1147 5h 10m 98% 89%
AmericanDetails → MYR 09:15 → CLT 10:33AA 5878 · flown by Piedmont 2h 30m Charlotte CLT 13:03 → ORD 14:10AA 2530 5h 54m 100% 89%
UnitedDetails → MYR 10:34 → IAD 12:11UA 4324 · flown by CommuteAir 3h 35m Dulles IAD 15:46 → ORD 16:57UA 2158 7h 23m 99% 87%
DeltaDetails → MYR 11:34 → DTW 13:31DL 1145 2h 25m Detroit DTW 15:56 → ORD 16:23DL 2358 5h 49m 99% 86%
AmericanDetails → MYR 17:36 → CLT 18:44AA 2943 3h 55m Charlotte CLT 22:39 → ORD 23:41AA 627 7h 05m 98% 85%
AmericanDetails → MYR 11:19 → PHL 13:08AA 5848 · flown by Piedmont 2h 38m Philadelphia PHL 15:46 → ORD 17:30AA 470 7h 11m 96% 85%
DeltaDetails → MYR 11:42 → ATL 13:04DL 3047 2h 46m Atlanta ATL 15:50 → ORD 17:12DL 2738 6h 30m 99% 84%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON