Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 12:00 PM ET · 3 nonstops

Tomorrow looks like a normal day here: all 3 nonstops are 7–11% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Safest bet that day OH 5634 MYR 12:43 → PHL 14:37 · 7% chance 15+ min late Riskiest AA 6107 MYR 10:39 → PHL 12:26 · 11% chance 15+ min late · usually 82% on time

Against a calm day 10% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 9% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Tue, Oct 6

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


OH 5634 PSA	MYR 12:43	PHL 14:37	7%	3%	1.0%	no record
PT 5863 Piedmont	MYR 14:56	PHL 16:44	11%	3%	1.3%	no record
AA 6107 American flown by Piedmont Flight history →	MYR 10:39	PHL 12:26	11%	2%	1.3%	82%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON