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Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 9:00 AM ET · connections flying that day

Tomorrow: Delta via Detroit, leaving 11:34, is the safest bet: 90% chance of reaching St Louis on time.

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach St Louis on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (St Louis is 1 h behind Myrtle Beach). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
DeltaDetails → MYR 11:34 → DTW 13:31DL 1145 3h 14m Detroit DTW 16:45 → STL 17:24DL 2822 6h 50m 99% 90%
DeltaDetails → MYR 06:00 → ATL 07:19DL 3162 1h 45m Atlanta ATL 09:04 → STL 09:43DL 1400 4h 43m 98% 90%
DeltaDetails → MYR 11:42 → ATL 13:04DL 3047 1h 59m Atlanta ATL 15:03 → STL 15:52DL 543 5h 10m 99% 88%
DeltaDetails → MYR 13:51 → ATL 15:14DL 3182 3h 55m Atlanta ATL 19:09 → STL 19:58DL 2833 7h 07m 99% 87%
AmericanDetails → MYR 09:15 → CLT 10:33AA 5878 · flown by Piedmont 1h 31m Charlotte CLT 12:04 → STL 12:51AA 3096 4h 36m 100% 86%
DeltaDetails → MYR 20:02 → ATL 21:35DL 1093 1h 35m Atlanta ATL 23:10 → STL 23:53DL 1403 4h 51m 97% 86%
AmericanDetails → MYR 19:20 → CLT 20:16AA 1417 2h 40m Charlotte CLT 22:56 → STL 23:58AA 459 5h 38m 97% 83%
AmericanDetails → MYR 12:02 → CLT 13:15AA 2431 3h 18m Charlotte CLT 16:33 → STL 17:30AA 2686 6h 28m 89% 74%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON