Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 7:00 AM ET · 31 nonstops

Tue, Oct 6: AA 76 at 07:12 is the safest bet, 4% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 6–20%.

Safest bet that day AA 76 JFK 07:12 → SFO 10:27 · 4% chance 15+ min late · usually 90% on time Riskiest UA 1844 EWR 18:00 → SFO 21:28 · 20% chance 15+ min late · usually 62% on time

Against a calm day 10% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 10% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Tue, Oct 6

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


AA 76 American Flight history →	JFK 07:12	SFO 10:27	4%	2%	0.8%	90%
AA 179 American Flight history →	JFK 07:58	SFO 11:19	5%	2%	0.7%	82%
DL 668 Delta Flight history →	JFK 07:00	SFO 10:15	5%	2%	0.6%	74%
DL 669 Delta Flight history →	JFK 09:00	SFO 12:19	6%	2%	0.7%	74%
B6 115 JetBlue Flight history →	JFK 06:00	SFO 09:15	6%	2%	0.7%	83%
B6 215 JetBlue Flight history →	JFK 10:30	SFO 14:08	6%	2%	0.7%	78%
B6 15 JetBlue Flight history →	JFK 08:00	SFO 11:20	6%	2%	0.7%	87%
AA 15 American Flight history →	JFK 16:30	SFO 20:05	6%	2%	0.8%	75%
AA 149 American Flight history →	JFK 10:29	SFO 13:54	6%	2%	0.7%	60%
DL 679 Delta Flight history →	JFK 14:55	SFO 18:24	7%	3%	0.6%	75%
AA 177 American Flight history →	JFK 21:26	SFO 00:59	7%	3%	0.9%	66%
UA 2115 United Flight history →	EWR 06:00	SFO 09:09	7%	2%	0.8%	85%
DL 363 Delta Flight history →	JFK 11:15	SFO 14:33	7%	2%	0.7%	73%
DL 365 Delta Flight history →	JFK 16:30	SFO 20:06	7%	3%	0.6%	67%
B6 515 JetBlue Flight history →	JFK 20:59	SFO 00:38	7%	3%	0.8%	65%
B6 415 JetBlue Flight history →	JFK 15:45	SFO 19:11	8%	3%	0.7%	67%
AS 41 Alaska Flight history →	JFK 11:30	SFO 14:50	8%	2%	0.8%	64%
B6 615 JetBlue Flight history →	JFK 18:30	SFO 22:10	9%	3%	0.7%	68%
AS 27 Alaska	JFK 16:35	SFO 19:35	9%	2%	0.7%	no record
UA 1777 United Flight history →	EWR 08:15	SFO 11:29	10%	3%	0.8%	72%
UA 1960 United Flight history →	EWR 07:00	SFO 09:59	10%	2%	0.8%	72%
UA 1593 United Flight history →	EWR 09:15	SFO 12:14	11%	3%	0.8%	50%
DL 667 Delta Flight history →	JFK 19:15	SFO 22:55	12%	3%	0.7%	62%
UA 1343 United Flight history →	EWR 11:50	SFO 15:01	13%	3%	0.7%	68%
UA 648 United Flight history →	EWR 10:40	SFO 13:51	13%	3%	0.7%	72%
UA 1227 United Flight history →	EWR 13:30	SFO 16:28	14%	4%	0.7%	73%
UA 2004 United Flight history →	EWR 16:09	SFO 19:25	15%	4%	0.7%	78%
UA 2328 United Flight history →	EWR 14:45	SFO 17:48	15%	5%	0.7%	68%
UA 1340 United Flight history →	EWR 17:00	SFO 20:37	16%	5%	0.7%	62%
UA 1558 United Flight history →	EWR 19:20	SFO 22:59	19%	5%	0.8%	52%
UA 1844 United Flight history →	EWR 18:00	SFO 21:28	20%	5%	0.8%	62%

Alternatives with one stop that day

All connections →


Delta Details →	JFK 06:00 → SLC 09:03DL 892	1h 42m Salt Lake City	SLC 10:45 → OAK 11:46DL 4134 · flown by SkyWest	8h 46m	99%	95%
Delta Details →	JFK 18:00 → SLC 21:39DL 863	1h 11m Salt Lake City	SLC 22:50 → OAK 23:50DL 3797 · flown by SkyWest	8h 50m	94%	91%
Delta Details →	JFK 17:01 → LAX 19:32DL 747	2h 02m Los Angeles	LAX 21:34 → SJC 22:58DL 3883 · flown by SkyWest	8h 57m	97%	90%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON