Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 7:00 AM ET · connections flying that day

Tue, Oct 6: Delta via Minneapolis, leaving 07:55, is the safest bet: 90% chance of reaching Bozeman on time.

Nonstops that day


UA 297 United Flight history →	EWR 07:39	BZN 10:26	8%	2%	0.7%	90%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Bozeman on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Bozeman is 2 h behind New York). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	LGA 06:00 → MSP 07:53DL 2510	3h 08m Minneapolis	MSP 11:01 → BZN 12:35DL 2946	8h 35m	99%	94%
Delta Details →	JFK 11:14 → SLC 14:21DL 917	2h 59m Salt Lake City	SLC 17:20 → BZN 18:44DL 3676 · flown by SkyWest	9h 30m	100%	93%
United Details →	LGA 06:10 → ORD 07:49UA 2389	1h 21m Chicago	ORD 09:10 → BZN 11:44UA 224	7h 34m	98%	93%
Delta Details →	LGA 17:02 → MSP 18:43DL 2349	3h 40m Minneapolis	MSP 22:23 → BZN 23:52DL 2954	8h 50m	99%	92%
Delta Details →	LGA 08:00 → ATL 10:29DL 364	3h 59m Atlanta	ATL 14:28 → BZN 16:26DL 406	10h 26m	100%	92%
United Details →	EWR 07:51 → DEN 10:15UA 1758	1h 44m Denver	DEN 11:59 → BZN 13:48UA 741	7h 57m	100%	91%
Delta Details →	JFK 16:27 → SLC 19:55DL 887	3h 10m Salt Lake City	SLC 23:05 → BZN 00:23 +1DL 2046	9h 56m	99%	91%
Delta Details →	JFK 06:00 → SLC 09:03DL 892	1h 43m Salt Lake City	SLC 10:46 → BZN 12:09DL 9968	8h 09m	99%	91%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON