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Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 6:00 PM ET · 69 nonstops

Tue, Oct 6: WN 2411 at 06:06 is the safest bet, 3% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 7–27%.

Safest bet that day WN 2411 LGA 06:06 → MDW 07:11 · 3% chance 15+ min late Riskiest UA 3931 EWR 19:10 → ORD 20:39 · 27% chance 15+ min late
Against a calm day 12% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 9% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Tue, Oct 6

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort. Dimmed: airlines we don’t forecast yet, shown with their 12-month record if they usually fly that weekday.
WN 2411 Southwest LGA 06:06 MDW 07:11 3% 1% 0.8% no record
AA 1427 American LGA 06:05 ORD 07:50 4% 2% 0.8% no record
AA 1263 American LGA 06:55 ORD 08:41 4% 2% 0.7% no record
AA 3185 American Flight history → EWR 05:30 ORD 07:15 4% 2% 1.0% 88%
AA 3027 American Flight history → EWR 06:50 ORD 08:34 4% 3% 0.8% 87%
UA 2389 United Flight history → LGA 06:10 ORD 07:49 4% 1% 0.6% 89%
UA 530 United Flight history → EWR 06:00 ORD 07:42 5% 2% 0.6% 92%
AA 3221 American JFK 07:04 ORD 08:45 6% 2% 0.8% no record
AA 392 American Flight history → LGA 07:23 ORD 09:09 6% 2% 0.8% 87%
WN 2412 Southwest LGA 07:36 MDW 08:53 6% 1% 0.8% no record
UA 2488 United Flight history → EWR 07:59 ORD 09:43 7% 3% 0.6% 88%
DL 2985 Delta Flight history → LGA 08:45 ORD 10:23 7% 2% 0.6% 80%
DL 2917 Delta Flight history → LGA 07:30 ORD 09:06 7% 2% 0.6% 81%
AA 2057 American Flight history → LGA 21:29 ORD 23:30 7% 3% 0.8% 55%
UA 1008 United LGA 07:06 ORD 08:27 8% 2% 0.6% no record
UA 2290 United Flight history → EWR 09:20 ORD 11:04 8% 3% 0.6% 83%
UA 2754 United EWR 07:18 ORD 08:54 8% 2% 0.6% no record
B6 905 JetBlue Flight history → JFK 07:05 ORD 08:50 8% 2% 0.7% 90%
DL 2251 Delta Flight history → LGA 07:46 ORD 09:05 8% 2% 0.7% 93%
AA 2223 American Flight history → LGA 09:16 ORD 10:36 8% 3% 0.7% 88%
UA 1525 United Flight history → EWR 10:24 ORD 12:06 9% 3% 0.6% 79%
YX 5599 Republic JFK 19:39 ORD 21:12 9% 3% 0.7% no record
DL 2240 Delta Flight history → LGA 11:30 ORD 13:05 9% 2% 0.7% 74%
AA 788 American JFK 10:35 ORD 11:55 9% 2% 0.8% no record
AA 752 American EWR 10:36 ORD 12:06 9% 3% 0.8% no record
AA 855 American LGA 10:37 ORD 12:04 9% 3% 0.8% no record
UA 477 United LGA 09:06 ORD 10:33 9% 2% 0.6% no record
UA 1166 United LGA 08:13 ORD 09:41 9% 2% 0.6% no record
UA 1310 United Flight history → LGA 10:15 ORD 11:57 10% 2% 0.6% 80%
AA 2841 American LGA 21:37 ORD 23:12 10% 3% 0.8% no record
DL 2226 Delta Flight history → LGA 14:45 ORD 16:30 10% 3% 0.6% 64%
AA 2909 American JFK 14:58 ORD 16:33 10% 2% 0.8% no record
DL 2806 Delta Flight history → LGA 20:45 ORD 22:36 11% 4% 0.7% 59%
AA 386 American LGA 12:28 ORD 13:39 11% 3% 0.8% no record
AA 1534 American LGA 14:28 ORD 15:43 11% 3% 0.8% no record
UA 1504 United Flight history → LGA 15:25 ORD 17:20 11% 3% 0.7% 61%
UA 2053 United Flight history → EWR 13:10 ORD 14:53 11% 3% 0.6% 77%
UA 2015 United LGA 11:18 ORD 12:43 11% 3% 0.6% no record
AA 4489 American flown by Republic Flight history → JFK 19:15 ORD 20:34 12% 3% 0.7% 82%
WN 487 Southwest Flight history → LGA 11:26 MDW 12:35 12% 1% 0.8% 94%
UA 1442 United LGA 14:16 ORD 15:47 12% 3% 0.6% no record
DL 2503 Delta Flight history → LGA 17:00 ORD 19:10 12% 4% 0.7% 62%
UA 1439 United EWR 10:58 ORD 12:21 12% 3% 0.6% no record
WN 2414 Southwest LGA 13:39 MDW 14:48 13% 2% 0.8% no record
AA 396 American Flight history → LGA 16:00 ORD 18:08 13% 4% 0.8% 64%
DL 1390 Delta Flight history → LGA 16:00 ORD 18:03 13% 3% 0.7% 66%
AA 2416 American EWR 14:15 ORD 15:30 13% 4% 0.8% no record
DL 2513 Delta Flight history → LGA 18:50 ORD 20:56 14% 5% 0.7% 57%
UA 775 United LGA 21:35 ORD 22:58 15% 3% 0.6% no record
UA 1967 United Flight history → LGA 13:22 ORD 14:48 16% 3% 0.6% 74%
UA 2788 United Flight history → EWR 14:45 ORD 16:28 16% 4% 0.6% 50%
UA 1156 United Flight history → LGA 16:25 ORD 18:17 16% 4% 0.7% 53%
WN 2714 Southwest LGA 21:35 MDW 22:41 16% 3% 0.8% no record
UA 1582 United Flight history → LGA 19:32 ORD 21:05 17% 4% 0.6% 60%
AA 1795 American Flight history → LGA 17:58 ORD 19:28 17% 4% 0.7% 38%
WN 3058 Southwest LGA 16:21 MDW 17:30 17% 3% 0.8% no record
UA 1206 United Flight history → EWR 21:52 ORD 23:20 18% 4% 0.7% 71%
WN 4741 Southwest LGA 18:18 MDW 19:25 20% 3% 0.8% no record
UA 2336 United LGA 17:13 ORD 18:36 21% 3% 0.6% no record
UA 546 United Flight history → EWR 20:19 ORD 22:06 22% 5% 0.7% 69%
UA 598 United Flight history → LGA 18:31 ORD 20:05 22% 5% 0.7% 41%
UA 1871 United EWR 20:50 ORD 22:27 22% 5% 0.7% no record
UA 254 United Flight history → EWR 18:15 ORD 20:10 25% 6% 0.6% 44%
AA 1691 American Flight history → EWR 17:21 ORD 18:49 25% 6% 0.8% 54%
UA 661 United Flight history → EWR 16:45 ORD 18:34 26% 5% 0.6% 50%
UA 3931 United EWR 19:10 ORD 20:39 27% 5% 0.7% no record
DL 5119 Delta flown by Endeavor no forecast: 12-month record JFK 10:30 ORD 12:20 14% 3% 7.0% 86%
DL 4725 Delta flown by Endeavor no forecast: 12-month record JFK 07:30 ORD 09:25 26% 14% 12.5% 74%
DL 4783 Delta flown by Endeavor no forecast: 12-month record JFK 15:00 ORD 17:11 26% 14% 23.6% 74%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON