Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 7:00 AM ET · 28 nonstops

Tue, Oct 6: UA 492 at 06:00 is the safest bet, 5% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 14–17%.

Safest bet that day UA 492 EWR 06:00 → IAH 08:41 · 5% chance 15+ min late · usually 92% on time Riskiest B6 281 JFK 14:29 → IAH 17:19 · 19% chance 15+ min late · usually 51% on time

Against a calm day 12% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 9% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Tue, Oct 6

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


UA 492 United Flight history →	EWR 06:00	IAH 08:41	5%	2%	0.5%	92%
UA 575 United	LGA 05:57	IAH 08:59	5%	2%	0.6%	no record
UA 2438 United Flight history →	EWR 07:05	IAH 09:50	6%	2%	0.5%	94%
WN 1093 Southwest	LGA 08:41	HOU 11:20	6%	2%	0.7%	no record
UA 2204 United Flight history →	EWR 12:36	IAH 15:34	7%	2%	0.5%	89%
DL 2140 Delta Flight history →	LGA 07:05	IAH 09:49	7%	2%	0.6%	89%
UA 332 United Flight history →	EWR 07:59	IAH 10:44	8%	2%	0.5%	87%
UA 2371 United Flight history →	LGA 07:48	IAH 10:20	8%	2%	0.6%	93%
UA 556 United Flight history →	EWR 10:53	IAH 13:38	11%	2%	0.5%	77%
UA 1830 United	EWR 14:01	IAH 16:59	11%	3%	0.6%	no record
WN 3856 Southwest	LGA 10:57	HOU 13:21	11%	2%	0.7%	no record
UA 2617 United Flight history →	LGA 10:15	IAH 13:06	11%	2%	0.6%	86%
UA 344 United	LGA 12:33	IAH 15:03	11%	2%	0.5%	no record
UA 2674 United Flight history →	LGA 14:00	IAH 17:01	12%	3%	0.5%	64%
DL 2930 Delta Flight history →	LGA 13:50	IAH 16:44	13%	3%	0.6%	73%
WN 1095 Southwest	LGA 14:32	HOU 16:56	13%	3%	0.8%	no record
UA 1794 United Flight history →	LGA 15:38	IAH 18:46	13%	3%	0.5%	62%
WN 3432 Southwest	LGA 17:21	HOU 19:44	14%	4%	0.7%	no record
B6 1381 JetBlue Flight history →	JFK 08:17	IAH 11:03	15%	4%	0.6%	66%
UA 2425 United Flight history →	EWR 20:50	IAH 23:43	15%	4%	0.6%	75%
DL 2099 Delta Flight history →	LGA 10:50	IAH 13:32	15%	3%	0.6%	76%
DL 2109 Delta Flight history →	LGA 18:29	IAH 21:44	15%	5%	0.6%	65%
UA 2815 United Flight history →	EWR 15:40	IAH 18:46	15%	4%	0.5%	69%
UA 1179 United	LGA 18:00	IAH 21:05	16%	4%	0.6%	no record
UA 2133 United	LGA 20:16	IAH 22:48	16%	3%	0.6%	no record
UA 2782 United Flight history →	EWR 17:54	IAH 20:55	16%	5%	0.6%	69%
UA 2127 United Flight history →	EWR 20:00	IAH 22:56	17%	5%	0.6%	68%
B6 281 JetBlue Flight history →	JFK 14:29	IAH 17:19	19%	5%	0.6%	51%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON