tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 3:00 PM ET · 52 nonstops

Tomorrow: UA 2423 at 06:42 is the safest bet, 7% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 10–25%.

Safest bet that day UA 2423 EWR 06:42 → SNA 09:35 · 7% chance 15+ min late · usually 94% on time Riskiest UA 353 EWR 18:45 → LAX 21:36 · 25% chance 15+ min late · usually 68% on time
Against a calm day 13% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 14% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Tue, Oct 6

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.
UA 2423 United Flight history → EWR 06:42 SNA 09:35 7% 2% 0.6% 94%
AA 171 American Flight history → JFK 06:00 LAX 09:01 8% 2% 0.8% 89%
UA 2434 United Flight history → EWR 06:00 LAX 08:53 9% 2% 0.6% 79%
AA 2459 American Flight history → JFK 08:19 SNA 11:28 9% 3% 0.7% 91%
DL 771 Delta Flight history → JFK 14:57 LAX 17:54 9% 2% 0.6% 78%
AA 255 American Flight history → JFK 12:22 LAX 15:12 10% 2% 0.7% 81%
DL 742 Delta Flight history → JFK 07:00 LAX 09:55 10% 2% 0.7% 78%
AA 33 American Flight history → JFK 07:05 LAX 10:07 10% 2% 0.7% 90%
DL 403 Delta Flight history → JFK 07:35 SNA 10:28 10% 3% 0.7% 84%
DL 752 Delta Flight history → JFK 20:20 LAX 23:38 10% 3% 0.7% 73%
DL 773 Delta Flight history → JFK 09:00 LAX 11:54 10% 2% 0.6% 81%
AA 3 American Flight history → JFK 11:00 LAX 13:58 10% 3% 0.7% 85%
AA 1 American Flight history → JFK 09:00 LAX 11:58 10% 3% 0.7% 87%
DL 767 Delta Flight history → JFK 11:00 LAX 13:49 10% 2% 0.6% 86%
DL 1035 Delta JFK 14:45 LAX 17:34 10% 2% 0.6% no record
DL 1905 Delta JFK 11:03 LAX 13:52 11% 2% 0.6% no record
B6 123 JetBlue Flight history → JFK 06:00 LAX 08:49 11% 1% 0.7% 88%
B6 1573 JetBlue Flight history → EWR 07:00 LAX 09:49 11% 3% 0.7% 76%
DL 707 Delta Flight history → JFK 16:27 LAX 19:22 11% 3% 0.6% 75%
DL 713 Delta Flight history → JFK 08:00 LAX 10:58 11% 2% 0.7% 78%
UA 2445 United Flight history → EWR 07:00 LAX 09:37 12% 3% 0.6% 81%
UA 212 United Flight history → EWR 12:00 LAX 14:38 12% 3% 0.6% 78%
DL 738 Delta Flight history → JFK 17:40 LAX 20:15 12% 2% 0.6% 77%
AA 341 American Flight history → JFK 15:40 LAX 18:48 12% 3% 0.7% 77%
DL 747 Delta Flight history → JFK 15:31 LAX 18:19 12% 2% 0.6% 81%
B6 223 JetBlue Flight history → JFK 09:37 LAX 12:37 13% 3% 0.7% 83%
B6 523 JetBlue Flight history → JFK 07:05 LAX 10:05 13% 2% 0.7% 83%
AA 306 American Flight history → JFK 17:00 LAX 20:19 13% 3% 0.7% 83%
AA 300 American Flight history → JFK 21:30 LAX 00:54 13% 4% 0.9% 73%
B6 423 JetBlue Flight history → JFK 10:59 LAX 13:59 13% 3% 0.7% 72%
B6 1523 JetBlue Flight history → JFK 15:15 LAX 18:16 13% 4% 0.7% 71%
B6 623 JetBlue Flight history → JFK 16:35 LAX 19:24 13% 4% 0.7% 74%
B6 1223 JetBlue Flight history → JFK 20:57 LAX 23:48 13% 5% 0.8% 54%
UA 2679 United Flight history → EWR 10:45 LAX 13:41 14% 3% 0.6% 78%
AA 117 American Flight history → JFK 21:20 LAX 23:53 14% 3% 0.8% 74%
B6 923 JetBlue Flight history → JFK 21:40 LAX 00:51 14% 6% 0.8% 58%
UA 2692 United Flight history → EWR 09:15 LAX 11:53 15% 3% 0.6% 69%
B6 358 JetBlue Flight history → JFK 17:17 BUR 20:35 15% 6% 1.0% 71%
B6 323 JetBlue Flight history → JFK 08:30 LAX 11:25 15% 2% 0.7% 81%
B6 1023 JetBlue Flight history → JFK 17:58 LAX 20:49 15% 5% 0.7% 73%
AA 302 American Flight history → JFK 18:10 LAX 21:28 15% 3% 0.8% 76%
UA 2191 United Flight history → EWR 14:15 LAX 17:13 16% 4% 0.6% 78%
UA 2477 United EWR 14:28 SNA 17:07 16% 5% 0.6% no record
UA 1690 United Flight history → EWR 17:00 SNA 20:06 16% 5% 0.7% 87%
B6 355 JetBlue Flight history → JFK 19:29 ONT 22:35 16% 5% 0.7% 62%
UA 1355 United EWR 16:22 LAX 19:18 16% 4% 0.6% no record
UA 8114 United EWR 14:20 LAX 17:19 16% 4% 0.6% no record
AS 287 Alaska Flight history → EWR 19:29 LAX 22:40 17% 5% 0.8% 74%
UA 2238 United Flight history → EWR 16:00 LAX 18:42 20% 5% 0.6% 70%
UA 2641 United Flight history → EWR 17:30 LAX 20:40 20% 5% 0.6% 72%
UA 712 United Flight history → EWR 20:10 LAX 23:05 24% 5% 0.7% 59%
UA 353 United Flight history → EWR 18:45 LAX 21:36 25% 5% 0.7% 68%

Alternatives with one stop that day

All connections →
DeltaDetails → LGA 06:00 → MSP 07:53DL 2510 1h 27m Minneapolis MSP 09:20 → LAX 11:10DL 2102 8h 10m 97% 89%
DeltaDetails → LGA 07:55 → MSP 09:53DL 2473 1h 10m Minneapolis MSP 11:03 → LAX 12:53DL 733 7h 58m 95% 88%
AmericanDetails → LGA 06:01 → DCA 07:28AA 4487 · flown by Republic 1h 12m Washington DCA 08:40 → LAX 11:19AA 1966 8h 18m 98% 88%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON